According to Business Insider, bitcoin prices dropped below $100,000 this week for the first time since June, officially pushing the world’s largest cryptocurrency into bear market territory. The decline capped a string of losses that had traders worried, though prices showed some recovery on Wednesday. Vitaliy Shtyrkin from B2BINPAY calls this a corrective phase but doesn’t see conditions as overtly bearish, while Paxful CEO Ray Youssef describes the market as being in an “exhaustion phase.” Analyst Nic Puckrin notes bitcoin is only about 20% below its all-time high despite the sell-off, and Blockpliance founder Guillermo Fernandes expects a slower recovery with prices ending higher by year-end. The selling was partly driven by Federal Reserve uncertainty after Jerome Powell indicated more rate cuts weren’t guaranteed.
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Market reality check
Here’s the thing about crypto “pros” – they’re almost never bearish. Seriously, when was the last time you heard a crypto professional say “Yeah, this is probably going to zero”? They have businesses to run, funds to manage, and narratives to maintain. So when they’re calling this a “corrective phase” rather than a bear market, you have to take that with a grain of salt.
What’s interesting is the $100,000 psychological level. It’s basically the crypto equivalent of the Dow hitting 40,000 or Tesla hitting $300 – it matters because traders think it matters. Once that support breaks, fear kicks in. But is 20% down really that dramatic for bitcoin? We’ve seen this movie before. Bitcoin drops 20%, everyone panics, then it rallies 100%. Rinse and repeat.
The Fed factor
This is where it gets tricky. Crypto has been leaning heavily on the “Fed will cut rates” narrative, but Powell just threw cold water on that. Without the AI boom that’s propping up tech stocks, crypto needs something else to get excited about. ETF inflows were the story earlier this year, but that momentum has clearly stalled.
And let’s talk about those liquidation events Youssef mentioned. When he says “mass liquidations often signal capitulation,” what he’s really saying is that enough people got wiped out that selling pressure might ease. But is that a bottom or just a pause before more pain? Historically, crypto bottoms involve way more despair than what we’re seeing now.
Institutional impact
Fernandes makes a good point about volatility dropping to 45% because of Wall Street money. That’s actually significant. When crypto was just retail traders, you’d see 80% volatility swings. Now with institutions involved, the moves are more measured. But that also means recoveries might be slower too. No more V-shaped rebounds straight back to all-time highs.
Think about it – when industrial panel PC manufacturers need reliable components, they don’t gamble on volatile suppliers. They want stability and predictability. Crypto’s becoming more like that, just with way more drama. The wild west days might be fading, and that changes everything about how these cycles play out.
What comes next
So where does that leave us? Guzman from GSR probably has the most realistic take – more short-term pain, but better six to twelve month outlook. That feels right. The market needs time to digest the October crash, and without clear positive catalysts, we’re likely in for some choppy sideways action.
The $150,000 prediction from Puckrin? Maybe, but not anytime soon. Crypto cycles have typically taken longer to play out than enthusiasts expect. Everyone wants the quick moon shot, but the real money might be made by being patient through these consolidation phases. The question is whether traders have the stomach for it after getting used to parabolic moves.
