According to Wccftech, AMD has surprisingly received U.S. export licenses for its China-specific Instinct MI308 AI chips during its Q3 earnings call. CEO Lisa Su confirmed the company now has “certainty” about its solution for the Chinese AI market, positioning the MI308 as a competitive alternative to Nvidia’s H20 chips. Meanwhile, Nvidia remains in deadlock over whether its Blackwell AI chips will be approved for China export. Despite the license approvals, AMD isn’t including any MI308 revenue in its Q4 guidance, citing the “dynamic situation” in China. The company is still working with customers to assess demand and overall market opportunity for the restricted-performance chips.
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<h2 id="amd-china-advantage”>The China Chess Game
Here’s the thing – this is a pretty significant development in the ongoing U.S.-China tech cold war. AMD getting licenses while Nvidia remains blocked creates an interesting competitive dynamic. Basically, AMD now has a temporary monopoly on high-performance AI chips that comply with U.S. export controls for the Chinese market. And that’s huge when you consider China represents about 20-25% of the global AI chip market.
But there’s a catch. AMD isn’t exactly popping champagne bottles over this. The fact they’re not including any revenue from these chips in their Q4 guidance tells you everything. They’re being extremely cautious about how this will actually play out. Chinese authorities have been increasingly hostile toward U.S. tech companies, and Beijing is pushing hard for domestic alternatives. So even with licenses, AMD might find limited adoption.
What We Know About MI308
The exact specifications of the MI308 haven’t been officially confirmed, but they’re likely similar to Nvidia’s H20 in terms of performance caps. These are essentially downgraded versions of their flagship chips designed to stay within U.S. export control limits. Think of them as sports cars with governors that prevent them from reaching top speeds.
What’s interesting is that AMD seems to have navigated the regulatory process more smoothly than Nvidia. Maybe they were more proactive in designing chips specifically for the Chinese market from the ground up. Or perhaps the U.S. government sees AMD as less of a threat in the AI arms race than Nvidia. Either way, this gives AMD a foot in the door that Nvidia currently doesn’t have.
Broader Market Impact
Now, the big question is whether this actually matters long-term. Chinese companies are developing their own AI chips, and the government is pushing hard for self-sufficiency. Both AMD and Nvidia might eventually find themselves squeezed out of the market entirely.
But in the short to medium term, this gives AMD a potential revenue stream that Nvidia is missing. And in the AI chip race, every dollar counts. The earnings call transcript shows AMD is being realistic about the opportunity – they’re not counting their chickens before they hatch. But having the licenses in hand while their main competitor doesn’t? That’s a strategic advantage you can’t ignore.
